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Recent advances are improving the speed and accuracy of loss estimates immediately after earthquakes (within less than an hour) so that injured people may be rescued more efficiently. After major and large earthquakes, rescue agencies and civil defense managers rapidly need quantitative estimates of the extent of the potential disaster, at a time when information from the affected area may not yet have reached the outside world. For the injured below the rubble every minute counts. To rapidly provide estimates of the extent of an earthquake disaster is much less of a problem in industrialized than in developing countries. This article focuses on how one can estimate earthquake losses in developing countries in real time. == The need for theoretically estimating human losses in real time == For the first few days after an earthquake, practically no information flows from the center of the devastated area. Examples of the initial underestimation of the extent of earthquake disasters in developing as well as industrialized countries are shown in Figure 1. The responsible experts believed for 4 days that the death toll in the Wenchuan earthquake, Mw 8 of May 12, 2008, was less than 10,000. The estimates of fatalities distributed by email by the World Agency for Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction〔(WAMERR )〕 within 100 minutes of the Wenchuan earthquake was 55,000 ± 30,000, which includes the final toll of about 87,000.〔http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2008/us2008ryan/#summary〕 For the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, an M6.3 earthquake, WAPMERR’s estimate of fatalities was 275 ±200, 22 minutes after the event.〔3. List of alerts can be found on www.wapmerr.org.〕 The final death toll was 287.〔http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2009/us2009fcaf/#summary〕 In both cases, the official fatality count was slow to reflect the true extent of the disasters. Thus, theoretical estimates of fatalities in real time can be useful for reacting with an appropriate disaster relief response, even though these estimates have large error margins. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Earthquake casualty estimation」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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